Management Turnover as Change Agent

Friday, October 19, 2012

Executive Turnover Looking to Grow After Election


Executive Turnover Looking to Grow After Election

2005-2012 Total Quarterly C-level ChangesJob growth and unemployment remain serious problems for the North American economy.  Executive turnover continues to serve as one of the few positive bright spots within the United States and Canadian economies.  For the last year overall executive turnover has remained high, a huge change from the declining numbers registered in the previous years during the height of the financial crisis.  Unlike growing unemployment numbers, turnover at the top typically portends positive economic growth in the near future.  While executive turnover numbers have moved off of trending highs, they have continued to follow a growth pattern over the last year.

Liberum Research continues to remain optimistic about the impact the growth in executive turnover will represent for the United States and Canadian economies.   For the last number of years through the financial and economic crisis, executive turnover at the top ranks of public companies was extremely low.  Caution rained supreme.  Companies cut budgets and employees but were loath to change top executives unless they absolutely had to. The order of the day was to keep the captains of the ship in place.   For the last year and a half, Liberum Research has seen a real shift in this trend.  Executive turnover overall has continued to rise while overall employment has finally showed signs of some growth.  We expect the employment numbers will continue to improve, while slowly, as we move into the late fall and winter.  Once the election is over, we expect the employment numbers will continue to improve and executive turnover will grow.
Liberum has put together below a nearly eight year quarterly breakdown of executive turnover totals for CEOs, CFOs and C-level executives covering North America. Most of the below quarterly numbers showed continuing declines until the second quarter of 2011.  At this point, the numbers began to reverse themselves.  Turnover at the executive levels of corporate America began to grow.  Companies began again to consider new blood and often looked to change their corporate strategies as kernels of opportunity began to sprout ever so slightly.  Anyone investing in the market must pay special attention to executive turnover both at the top and the middle executive ranks.  Failure to do so, will result in lost opportunities or worse.
Below are three simple graphics outlining the quarterly turnover totals as registered through Liberum’s Management Change Database for 2008 through the third quarter of 2012 for CEO, CFO and overall C-level turnover.

2005-2012 Total Quarterly CFO Changes

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Tepid Job Growth Fails to Stall Executive Turnover


Just as we saw in the previous month of July, executive turnover in North America continues to slow down from the rapid rate we experienced for most of the last year.  The recent slowdown in executive turnover has not been dramatic and we anticipate turnover will begin to grow again as we move into the Fall and Winter months.  Last Friday morning the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released its highly anticipated August 2012 Employment Report, The Gallup Organization on September 6, released its unemployment numbers for August and earlier in the week, ADP released its Private Employment Report.  All three reports showed poor progress in job growth and a small reduction in overall unemployment.
The Labor Department’s BLS Report stated,
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 96,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 8.1 percent,…
… The unemployment rate edged down in August to 8.1 percent. Since the beginning of this year, the rate has held in a narrow range of 8.1 to 8.3 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.5 million, was little changed in August.
The latest Gallup Report stated:
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.1% for the month of August, down slightly from 8.3% measured in mid-August and 8.2% for the month of July. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August is also 8.1%, a slight uptick from 8.0% at the end of July.
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with more than 30,000 Americans throughout the month. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. The government adjusted its July numbers downward last year, but made no adjustment in August, which accounts for the increase in seasonally adjusted unemployment despite the decline in the unadjusted number.
U.S. unemployment declined significantly during the first part of the year, but August marks the third straight month with little change in the unadjusted number. Gallup’s estimate of adjusted unemployment has increased by 0.3 percentage points since June. Despite the lackluster jobs growth, August’s 2012 unadjusted and adjusted unemployment are each more than a full point lower than they were in August 2011.
According to the August ADP Employment Report:
Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000.
Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July.  Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August.  Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.  Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 16,000 and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 86,000 in August.
Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 99,000 that same period. Of the 86,000 jobs created on medium-sized payrolls, 12,000 jobs were created by the goods producing sector and 74,000 jobs were created by the service-providing sector.
Construction employment rose for the third consecutive month, adding 10,000 jobs, marking the best reading since March.  The financial services sector added 8,000 jobs from July to August, marking the thirteenth consecutive monthly gain.
Here in the United States growing executive turnover remains one of the few bright spots for the United States economy.  While Liberum’s assessment for the future of the U.S. economy is a minority view, we still see hope for growth in the economy and in overall jobs.  For the next few months, Liberum expects to see reasonably robust turnover in the nation’s corporate executive ranks.  Today’s Federal Reserve announcement is another push forward that might help with job growth going forward.
Below is a simple breakdown of the key executive category percentage increases for August 2012 compared with August a year earlier and the previous month of July 2012.  The year to year changes overall were for the first time in nearly a year negative.
  • For August only one of four key categories saw an increase, CEO changes showed no change from a year ago, CFO changes declined 13%, overall C-level (as defined by Liberum Research as board of directors, CEOs, CFOs down to corporate VPs) changes declined 17% while board of director changes increased 131% as compared with August 2011 totals.
  • The month to month change in executive turnover showed consistent increases for all four key areas for July 2012 to August 2012, a positive sign for the future.  CEO changes increased 13%, CFO changes increased 20%, overall C-level changes increased 10% and board of director changes increased 22% respectively.
Below are four graphs illustrating the August sector breakdowns and total turnover changes for CEOs, CFOs, C-level  and Board of Directors.


August 2012 CEO Changes By Sector
August 2012 CEO Changes By Sector


August 2012 CFO Changes By Sector


August 2012 C-level Changes By Sector



AUGUST 2012 Board of Director Changes by Sector

Friday, June 22, 2012

May’s Executive Turnover Totals Defy Weak Job Growth

Liberum Research continues to view the American economy in a more positive light than has been seen by the majority of analysts and economic forecasters.  Despite the worrying overall employment numbers and incredibly weak job growth that has been registered of late, Liberum expects these numbers will improve as we move into the late summer and early fall.  We are still very concerned about the severe economic problems in Europe and hope to see a change of strategy by Germany in conjunction with the other large European members to deal with the problems facing Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal.  If the severe austerity approach of the European Community continues, Liberum will be forced to re-evaluate our assessment but we expect growing pressures will force it to change.

Here in the United States growing executive turnover remains one of the few bright spots for the United States economy.  While our assessment for the future of the U.S. economy is a lone voice, we still see real hope for growth in the economy and in overall jobs.  Last month’s job numbers so far do not jive with our forecast but we still believe there is a real chance for a change in these numbers going forward.  For the next few months, Liberum expects to see reasonably robust turnover in the nation’s corporate executive ranks.  We expect these growing turnover numbers will translate into a slow but steady growth in jobs.

Below is a breakdown of the key executive category percentage increases for May 2012 compared with May a year earlier and the previous month of April 2012.  The year to year changes overall were quite positive while the month over month executive turnover numbers again showed a slowing in the trend but unlike the previous month to month comparison actually showed growth.
  • For May the four key categories saw increases, CEO changes increased 37%, CFO changes increased 75%, overall C-level (as defined by Liberum Research as board of directors, CEOs, CFOs down to corporate VPs) changes increased 25% and board of director changes increased 84% as compared with May 2011 totals.
  • The month to month change in executive turnover showed an increase for all the key areas for April 2012 to May 2012.  CEO changes increased 30%, CFO changes increased 7%, overall C-level changes increased 6% and board of director changes increased 10%.
Below are four  graphical representations of the total executive turnover changes in the month of may for CEOs, CFOs, C-level changes (as defined by Liberum Research) and Board of Director Changes.  The numbers continue to show growth.



 
 
May 2012 CFO Changes

May 2012 C-level Changes
May 2012 Board of Director Changes

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Quarterly Executive Turnover Continues on a Tear

What a difference a year makes. For the last number of years, executive turnover at the top ranks of public companies was extremely low. As the nation and the world faced the huge financial crisis in 2008 and thereafter, companies were loath to change executives unless absolutely necessary but were often eager to layoff off general employees. For the last 12 – 14 months, Liberum Research has seen a real shift in the trend. Executive turnover overall has continued to rise while overall employment has finally showed signs, while tepid, of growth. Last week, ADP which tracks overall private employment, announced more positive news for the month of March. According to ADP’s latest Employment Report:
Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 209,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Estimated gains for previous months were revised higher; the gain from December to January was revised up by 9,000 to 182,000, and the gain from January to February was revised up by 14,000 to 230,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector increased 164,000 in March, after rising a revised 183,000 in February. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector rose 45,000 in March. Manufacturing employment added 23,000 jobs.
Later in that same week, the U.S.Labor Department released its employment numbers and to most analysts’ surprise, they were less than encouraging. Liberum expects the numbers will be revised upward but the lower than expected totals were a cause for some concern. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ employment numbers for March released on Friday, April 6,

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in manufacturing, food services and drinking places, and health care, but was down in retail trade.

Liberum has put together below a six plus year quarterly breakdown of executive turnover totals for CEOs, CFOs and C-level executives covering North America. Most of the below quarterly numbers showed continuing declines until the second quater of 2011. At this point, the numbers began to reverse themselves. Turnover at the executive levels of corporate America began to grow. Companies began again to consider new blood and often looked to change their corporate strategies as kernels of opportunity began to sprout ever so slightly. We also saw a number of major companies change leadership after major declines in revenues and/or profits.
GRAPHIC REPRESENTATION OF QUARTERLY KEY EXECUTIVE TURNOVER TOTALS
2005 – 2012


Monday, February 13, 2012

January Executive Turnover Continues to Grow

Liberum’s January 2012 executive turnover data has continued to show growing turnover within the executive ranks similar to what we have seen for most of the last ten months. January has actually seen a continuing positive trend with regard to the number of people filing new unemployment claims and, even more significantly, the economy has actually generated more jobs. On Friday February 3, the United States Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced its latest employment numbers. The news overall was pretty good, considering what most analysts had expected. The official unemployment rate dropped a modest 0.2% down to 8.3%. According to the BLS’s official Employment Situation Summary released Friday morning:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread in the private sector, with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Government employment changed little over the month.

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point in January to 8.3 percent; the rate has fallen by 0.8 point since August. The number of unemployed persons declined to 12.8 million in January.

Liberum expects this trend will continue, while ever so slowly.

Below is a breakdown of the key executive category percentage increases for January 2012 compared with January a year earlier and the previous month of December 2011 and here again, the number totals were quite positive.

  • For January all four key categories saw increases, CEO changes increased a huge 191%, CFO changes increased 144%, overall C-level (as defined by Liberum Research as board of directors, CEOs, CFOs down to corporate VPs) changes increased 107% and board of director changes increased 11% as compared with January 2011 totals.
  • The month to month change in executive turnover was much smaller for December 2011 to January 2012. CEO changes increased 4%, CFO changes increased 21%, overall C-level changes increased 11% while board of director changes declined 5%.

Below are the key statistics for executive turnover for the month of January followed by graphs outlining the total turnover numbers for each key category.

JANUARY 2012 MANAGEMENT CHANGE STATISTICS

C-LEVEL MANAGEMENT CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL – 1855

TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS

> Energy – 175
> Drugs/Biotech – 146
> Banking – 145

JANUARY 2012 CEO CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL – 247

TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS

> Energy – 27
> Banking – 24
> Drugs/Biotech – 23

JANUARY 2012 CFO CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL – 207

TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS

> Energy – 19
> Drugs/Biotech – 18
> Metals/Mining – 15

JANUARY 2012 BOARD OF DIRECTOR CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL – 160

TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS

> Banking – 26
> Energy – 21
> Drugs/Biotech – 16