Management Turnover as Change Agent

Monday, February 8, 2016

Liberum Research's latest January 2016 executive turnover numbers show a decline from the rapid growth in turnover seen in December and November 2015.  Nevertheless as a general, January's turnover figures tend to be slower than those registered in the previous months of December and November.  January's turnover numbers when compared to the figures registered in January a year earlier, showed increases in three out of the four key categories Liberum analyzes for its monthly report (see details below).  The overall numbers for January were surprisingly positive when one considers how the stock market has been reacting over the last number of weeks along with growing concerns by numerous analysts and business experts that the American economy could be moving toward recession in the near future.  Liberum contends that continuing strong executive turnover over the last number of months combined with strong employment growth and moderate unemployment continue to point in a positive direction for the American Economy.  

Typically, Liberum's monthly executive turnover figures tend to follow a similar pattern with the U.S. Government's Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Monthly Employment Report and ADP's Monthly Private Employment Report. The BLS and ADP's latest January Reports were more sober than the numbers for December but overall, they continue to point to strong job growth and consistent rates of moderate unemployment, currently at an 8 year low of 4.9%.  
 
On Wednesday, February 3, ADP released its ADP January Employment Report:

Private sector employment increased by 205,000 jobs from December to January according to the January ADP National Employment Report®

"One of the main reasons for lower overall employment gains in January was the drop off in jobs added at the largest companies compared to December. These businesses are more sensitive to current economic conditions than small and mid-sized companies,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Over the past year, businesses with less than 500 employees have created nearly 80 percent of new jobs.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth remains strong despite the turmoil in the global economy and financial markets. Manufacturers and energy companies are reducing payrolls, but job gains across all other industries remain robust. The U.S. economy remains on track to return to full employment by mid-year."
 
 
 
The employment news from the U.S. Government's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Friday, February 5, appeared more negative but a close reading between the lines indicates the latest figures were reasonably positive. According to the January BLS Employment Report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, led by retail trade, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. Employment declined in private educational services, transportation and warehousing, and mining.

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 7.8 million, and the unemployment rate, at 4.9 percent, changed little in January. Over the past 12 months, the number of 
unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.1 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively.

A closer reading of the latest numbers BLS numbers and the circumstances behind them actually point to real progress in the employment numbers.  According to a story by Akin Oyedele in Business Insider right after the BLS announcement:

"Economists had estimated job gains of 190,000 and an unemployment rate of 5%.

Wage growth was stronger than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% month-on-month. And compared with January 2015, earnings rose 2.5% (2.2% estimated).

There was also a nice surprise from the manufacturing sector, which added 29,000 jobs last month, the most since August 2013. The sector has been hurt by weak global demand and the strong dollar in recent months.

Also, the labor-force participation rate rose to 62.7% from 62.6%.

Overall, and despite the month-on-month slowdown, it's a strong report that shows the labor market is still robust."
 
Bloomberg News also saw positive signs from the latest BLS Jobs report.  According to a story by Christopher Condon, entitled, Fed Can Find Plenty of Positives in Details of Latest Jobs Report,

Taken together, the report was "somewhat hawkish for the Fed, given the move down in the unemployment rate and the move up in wages," Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said. Feroli believes the Fed still wouldn't raise rates if it were meeting tomorrow.
 
"The report unequivocally supports the Federal Reserve’s (and our) baseline view that further gradual rate hikes are warranted,"  Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at  Unicredit Bank AG in New York, wrote in a note to clients. "A falling unemployment rate and faster wage gains also mean that the Fed is getting closer to meet both of its mandates."

Liberum, despite the growing concerns about a recession in the future and troubles facing the world economy, remains optimistic about the American Economy for the next number of months.  Executive turnover in public companies continues to remain robust and is predicted to continue.  The likelihood of robust executive turnover and ongoing job growth should counteract some of the negative news about recent weak corporate profits and the continuing stock market turmoil in the United States and throughout world stock exchanges.
 
Liberum Comparison Breakdown of Key January Executive Turnover Figure

Below is a breakdown of Liberum's key executive category percentage changes for January 2016 compared with January a year earlier and the previous month of December 2015.   
  • January 2015 Compared to January 2016
For January 2016 increases in turnover occurred in three out of four key categories.  CEO changes increased 18% from January a year earlier, CFO changes declined -2%, C-level changes increased 15%, and board of director changes increased 5%, respectively.  
  • December 2015 Compared to January 2016
The month to month changes in executive turnover was a reverse, three out of four categories saw declines. CEO changes declined a mere -1%, CFO changes declined -6%, C-level changes declined -22%, while board of director changes increased 16%.              


Below are the overall turnover totals for January 2016.  The information is just illustrative of how institutional investors could view executive turnover and its possible relationship with a company's performance.  Using Liberum's database could offer a totally new perspective on investment and is a potential way to come up with unique special situation opportunities.  Executive search firms can use the information to generate new leads and new clients, and consulting firms can use the data for a variety of analytical purposes.   

Call now (212-988-5497) or email richard@twst.com and get a no obligation one week trial to Liberum's online management change database. Find out why Hedge Funds, Executive Search, Business Intelligence, and Consulting firms all rely on Liberum's data.
 
KEY CEO CHANGES - JANUARY 2016
55 COMPANIES WITH CEO CHANGES WORTH RE-EXAMINING
 
According to Liberum's Management Change Database, a total of 226 CEO related changes occurred during January 2016. Here are 45 changes from the time period that caught my eye.  By significant, I'm looking for situations where I think a particularly strong or weak choice has been made - given the apparent current state of the company - or where there is an interesting special situation. (Anyone using Liberum's database could do the same kind of analysis for other key titles, e.g., CFOs, COOs, CMOs, CIOs, Presidents, etc.)

DATE  COMPANY TICKER  EXCHANGE  MARKET CAP $ MILLIONS    
Change date   Co name Ticker Market cap01-04 Wipro Limited (ADR)  WIT  NYSE  27500
01-05 National Cinemedi  NCMI  NASDAQ  880
01-05 Spirit Airlines SAVE NASDAQ  2690
01-06 Jetpay Corporation  JTPY  NASDAQ  37
01-06 Ovascience Inc.  OVAS  NASDAQ  231
01-06 Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl  VRX  NYSE  33280
01-07 Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc.  AEGR  NASDAQ  230
01-07 Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc.  DHIL  NASDAQ  566
01-07 Enerpulse Technology  ENPT  OTC
01-07 IsoRay Inc.  ISR  NYSE  49
01-07 Rignet, Inc.  RNET  NASDAQ  316
01-07 Zosano Pharma Corp  ZSAN  NASDAQ  30
01-08 Freestone Resources Inc FSNR  OTC  14
01-08 Quest Resource Ho  QRHC  NASDAQ  77
01-08 Zaza Energy Corpo  ZAZA  OTC  964646
01-11 BT Group plc (ADR)  BT NYSE  56390
01-11 DuSolo Fertilizers Inc.  DSF  CVE
01-11 Helix BioPharma Corp  HBPCF  OTC  130
01-11 MannKind Corporation  MNKD  NASDAQ  315
01-11 Oncothyreon  ONTY  NASDAQ  159
01-11 Reading International, Inc.  RDI  NASDAQ  271
01-11 UTStarcom, Inc.  UTSI  NASDAQ  82
01-12 Epistem Holdings  EHP LONDON
01-12 Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.  JKHY  NASDAQ  6230
01-12 Nuo Therapeutics,  NUOT  OTC  6
01-13 Publix Super Markets  PUSH  OTC
01-13 USA Truck, Inc.  USAK  NASDAQ  146
01-14 Isle of Capri Casinos Inc.  ISLE  NASDAQ  507
01-15 Cabinet Grow  CBNT  OTC  374256
01-15 Highland Gold Mining Ltd  HGHGF  OTC  246
01-15 OHA Investment Corporation  OHAI  NASDAQ
01-18 Addus Homecare Co  ADUS  NASDAQ  226
01-18 Adidas AG  ADDYY  OTC  19970
01-18 Amec Foster Wheeler PLC AMFW  LONDON
01-18 NOTE AB NOTE SWEDEN
01-19 Zix Corporation  ZIXI NASDAQ  250
01-20 Citrix Systems, Inc.  CTXS  NASDAQ  10370
01-22 Jamba, Inc.  JMBA  NASDAQ  197
01-22 Rcs Capital Corpo  RCAP  SEA  842225
01-25 Redstar Gold Corp  RGCTV  OTC
01-25 Timberline Resources  TBR  VANCOUVER  3
01-26 Wilhelmina Intern  WHLM  NASDAQ  39
01-27 K12 Inc LRN  NYSE
01-27 Perceptron, Inc.  PRCP  NASDAQ  65
01-28 Acorn Energy Inc  ACFN  OTC  5
 
JANAURY 2016 MANAGEMENT CHANGE STATISTICS
C-LEVEL MANAGEMENT CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL - 1,694
TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS
> Drugs- 174
> Banking - 161
> Energy - 143

JANAURY 2016 CEO CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL - 226
TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS
> Drugs/Biotech - 20
> Energy- 20
> Banking - 18
> Metals/Mining - 17

JANAURY 2016 CFO CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL - 220
TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS
> Drugs/Biotech - 24
> Energy - 16
> Banking - 14

JANUARY 2016 BOARD OF DIRECTOR CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL - 487
TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS
> Drugs/Biotech - 75
> Energy - 43
> Banking - 32

Investors need to diligently monitor key management changes. Certain management changes should be viewed as a "special situation" that can have a direct and major impact on a company's performance and share price.
  • New CEOs know more than the market about the company.  Their decision to take the position contains information.  Likewise the departing CEO. 
  • Likewise departing CFOs New CFOs will bring new skills and often-times a new direction.  This is normally significant, and worth analyzing.
Liberum Research, the independent research firm focused on corporate management change, has developed an online relational database designed to assist institutional investors develop special situation investment ideas related to executive management change. While special situation investing traditionally revolves around corporate restructuring, spin-offs, and acquisitions, executive management changes, depending on the circumstances, can represent a short or long-term investment opportunity. 

Thursday, January 14, 2016

U.S. Annual and Quarterly Executive Turnover Point to Continued Economic Growth

The last year experienced significant upside in the American economy.  Employment growth continued to show steady gains throughout the entire year.  Unemployment also continued to drop throughout the year and was below estimates put forth by virtually all major analysts.  Manufacturing saw gains overall but has not been as positive a force in the economy as has overall employment growth which took place in nearly all sectors of the economy.  These positive trends have also continued in executive turnover for public companies as tracked by Liberum Research's Management Change Database.  Over the most recent number of weeks, stock markets throughout the world have been reeling and concern has been growing for the world economy and particularly the Chinese economy.  Even the United States, which has faired economically quite well in the last year to two years, has appeared to show signs of concern about the economy and the possibility of recession.  While problems remain, Liberum's latest positive monthly, quarterly, and annual executive turnover numbers continue to point to a strong American economy despite the economic difficulties the Chinese and other industrialized nations are encountering.  While the American economy is likely to encounter problems in 2016 as well, Liberum continues to remain optimistic about the economy's overall performance.  The continuing high level of executive turnover in key categories and the continuing positive trend of employment growth throughout the economy serve as a major buffer to future economic difficulties.  
 
Liberum has put together below, an eight year quarterly and annual breakdown of executive turnover totals for CEOs, CFOs and C-level executives covering North America. Most of the below quarterly numbers showed continuing declines until the second quarter of 2011.  At that point, the numbers began to reverse themselves. Turnover at the executive levels of corporate America began to grow while not consistently and that trend has continued and is expected to follow a similar pattern for 2016.

Anyone investing in the market must pay special attention to executive turnover both at the top and the middle executive ranks.  Failure to do so, will result in lost opportunities or worse. To take advantage of executive changes, get a free trial to Liberum's Online Management Change Database.  Just call Richard at 212-988-5497 or send an email to richard@twst.com requesting your free trial.  Within a day of your trial, you will have access to over 250,000 data points from which you can generate ideas and daily information on who is changing jobs at the top and where they are going.
 
Below is a simple table outlining the quarterly and annual turnover totals as registered through Liberum Research's Management Change Database for 2008 through 2015 for CEOs, CFOs and overall C-level turnover.  

 Total CEO Turnover Comparisons   
                             
 Year 2008    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014   2015    
1st Quarter 745491 388346 680 583 500 522 
 2nd Quarter596 380321 581665 619 527538 
 3rd Quarter533409298713 636 627 557621 
 4th Quarter461430328697 673 636651674 
 Annual Total2,3351,7101,3352,337 2,6542,465 2,2352,355 
 

















 



 Total CFO Turnover Comparisons 
                       
 Year 2008    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014   2015    
1st Quarter 593 332 296 280 640 495  468513 
 2nd Quarter551 326 273 404612 557   595 588
 3rd Quarter438 279 256629 598582  550 628 
 4th Quarter364 313  258   476569562 586 624 
 Annual Total1,9461,250 1,0831,789 2,4192,196 2,1992,353 
 
















 
 





Total C-level Turnover Comparisons
       
 Year 2008    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013  2014   2015    
1st Quarter 6735 4061 34532863 5442 3971 4083 3923 
 2nd Quarter7430 5051 3199 404150364102 4117 4767 
 3rd Quarter4865 3690 25225349 423541233950 5368 
 4th Quarter4277 3439  2381   4596 419741964200 5297 
 Annual Total23,307 16,241 11,55516,849 18,91016,392 16,35019,355 
 




Latest Monthly Comparisons

The latest monthly comparison figures with regard to executive turnover for December 2015 as compared with those of December 2014 and December 2015 and November 2015 are as follows:  
  • CEO turnover for December 2015 showed a mere 1% change from that of December 2014, CFO turnover increased only 3%, C-level turnover increased 24% and Board of Director turnover increased 21%.  
  • The the month to month change from November 2015 to December 2015 overall was somewhat less clear. CEO turnover declined 8% for CEOs, declined 15% for CFOs, but remained unchanged with regard to C-level changes and increased 13% for Board of Director changes.  
December CEO Changes of Possible Significance

In the below report, Liberum has focused on 46 CEO changes of special significance for the month of December out of a total of 229. We have also put together the overall turnover figures for the month of December 2015.  The below information is just illustrative of how investors could view executive turnover and its possible relationship with a company's performance. The same could be done for COOs, Presidents, Chairmans, etc., just through Liberum's Management Change Database.

DATE       COMPANY   TICKER    EXCHANGE   MARKET CAP $ MILLIONS
12-01 Eurotin Inc  TIN Vancouver CN
12-01 Shutterfly, Inc.  SFLY  NASAQ  1580
12-01 The Travelers Companies, Inc.  TRV  NYSE  35190
12-01 Zurich Insurance  ZURN  SWL
12-02 Glorywin Entertainment Group Inc  GWIN  OTC  106
12-03 Solera Natl Banco  SLRK  OTC  16
12-04 Goldcorp Inc. (USA)  GG  NYSE  10570
12-07 FARO Technologies, Inc.  FARO  NASDAQ  514
12-07 Lantronix, Inc.  LTRX  NASDAQ  18
12-07 NRG Yield Inc  NYLD  NYSE  1160
12-07 Wellgreen Platinum Ltd  WGPLF  OTC  20
12-08 Afrocentric Investment  ACT JSE South Africa
12-08 Benitec Biopharma Ltd  BNTC  NASDAQ  27
12-08 Myers Industries, Inc.  MYE  NYSE  438
12-09 Novogen Limited (ADR)  NVGN  NASDAQ  36
12-10 Robert Half Intl  RHI  NYSE  6130
12-10 Veloxis Pharmaceuticals A/S  LFCYF  OTC  416
12-11 Genesis Energy, L.P.  GEL  NYSE
12-11 NEL ASA NEL.OL  2590
12-11 Sirona Dental Sys., Inc.  SIRO  NASDAQ  6030
12-11 Swiss Prime Site  SWPRF  OTC  5350
12-14 American Midstrea  AMID  NYSE  174
12-14 Cheniere Energy U  CQP  NYSE  7500
12-15 AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.  AMC  NYSE  2350
12-15 Platform Specialty Products Corp  PAH  NYSE  2600
12-15 Sitestar Corp  SYTE  OTC  4
12-16 Avanza Bank Holding AB  AZA  STOCKHOLM  11150
12-16 BankAtlantic Bancorp, Inc.  BBX  NYSE  247
12-16 Truecar, Inc.  TRUE  NASDAQ  693
12-17 Nanotech Entainmt  NTEK  OTC  2
12-17 Speed Commerce, I  SPDC  UTC  
12-18 Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  ARIA  NASDAQ  1170
12-18 Southcrest Fin Gr  SCSG  OTC  60
12-21 Derma Sciences, I  DSCI  NASDAQ  119
12-21 Eastern Co  EML  NASDAQ  110
12-21 Kalobios Pharmace  KBIO  97
12-21 Winnebago Industries, Inc.  WGO  NYSE  524
12-22 Acacia Research- Acacia Tech  ACTG  NASDAQ  201
12-22 PDI, Inc.  PDII  9
12-23 Black Box Corporation  BBOX  NASDAQ  140
12-23 MannKind Corporation  MNKD  NASDAQ  630
12-23 Owen Dukes  SPOM  OTC  54904
12-24 True Drinks Holdings, Inc.  TRUU  OTC  19
12-28 Timberline Res Co  TLR  NYSE  2
12-28 Valeant Pharmaceuticals Int'l  VRX  NYSE  35040
12-29 Triumph Group, Inc.  TGI  NYSE  2020

DECEMBER 2015 MANAGEMENT CHANGE STATISTICS
C-LEVEL MANAGEMENT CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL - 1810
TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS
> Drugs/Biotech 
- 226
> Banking  - 155
> Manufacturing - 97
DECEMBER 2015 CEO CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL - 229
TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS

> Drugs/Biotech - 24
> Banking -20
> Energy - 20
> Manufacturing - 12
DECEMBER 2015 CFO CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL - 190
TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS

> Drugs/Biotech - 29
> Manufacturing - 11
> Energy - 10
> Leisure - 10
> Media - 10
> Real Estate - 10
DECEMBER 2015 BOARD OF DIRECTOR CHANGE STATISTICS
GRAND TOTAL - 624
TOP INDUSTRY SECTORS

> Drugs/Biotech - 88
> Banking - 53
> Metals/Mining - 35
Investors need to diligently monitor key management changes. Certain management changes should be viewed as a "special situation" that can have a direct and major impact on a company's performance and share price.
  • New CEOs know more than the market about the company.  Their decision to take the position contains information. Likewise the departing CEO. Likewise departing CFOs.
  • New CEOs will bring new skills and often-times a new direction.  This is normally significant, and worth analyzing.
Liberum Research, the independent research firm focused on corporate management change, has developed an online relational database designed to assist institutional investors develop special situation investment ideas related to executive management change. While special situation investing traditionally revolves around corporate restructuring, spin-offs and acquisitions, executive management changes, depending on the circumstances, can represent a short or long-term investment opportunity. 
Liberum's over ten year old database offers institutional investors the ability to examine an individual company, sector/s, group of companies, and/or geographic region/s/ locations via a metric of one's own choosing.  You can use the information individually or in combination with a number of other financial tools to develop unique investment ideas.