November Continues Growth Trend in Executive Turnover

Liberum’s executive turnover data for the month of November has continued to show growing turnover within the executive ranks similar to what we have seen for most of previous months this year. This trend was a complete reversal of what we saw for the previous two years. November’s increase in executive turnover took place while we saw a positive trend with regard to the number of people filing new unemployment claims and, even more significantly, the economy has actually generated more jobs. This is not say we are out of the woods with regard to overall employment and the economy but more positive employment signs continue to show up. In early December, the United States Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced the latest employment numbers. The official unemployment rate dropped a modest 0.4% down to 8.6%, the lowest rate since March 2009. There still remains 13.3 million people unemployed a seriously high number. The modest gain in employment is further tempered by the fact that according to BLS 315,000 people had given up looking for work. Even las t week we saw another drop in the number of people applying for unemployment.

Below Liberum has outlined in graphical format a November breakdown for CEO, CFO and overall C-level related turnover.

C-LEVEL RELATED CHANGES FOR NOVEMBER

CEO RELATED CHANGES FOR NOVEMBER

CFO RELATED CHANGES FOR NOVEMBER

For the month of November, CEO changes increased a huge 125%, CFO changes increased 111%, overall C-level (as defined by Liberum Research as board of directors, CEOs, CFOs down to corporate VPs) changes increased 94% while board of director changes declined 11% as compared with November 2010 totals. The month to month change in executive turnover on the other hand was negative for November 2011 when compared with October 2011 totals. CEO changes declined 12%, CFO changes declined 15%, overall C-level changes declined a mere 2% and board of director changes declined only 3%. Liberum expects the fourth quater of 2011 to show an increase over the same quater in 2010. Stay tuned.

Second Quarter Executive Turnover Shows Real Growth

With the end of the second quarter, the United States economy appears to have turned a major corner in relation to executive turnover. Executive turnover, as tracked by Liberum, has seen a continuing jump in the totals for June 2011 and the second quarter. The jump in turnover has been apparent when second quarter was compared with the same quarter in 2010 as well as in relation to the previous first quarter of 2011. The continuing jump in executive turnover appears to be at odds again with the level of employment and unemployment in the United States economy. Troubling signs for overall employment continue to haunt the U.S. economy as the recovery continues to limp along.

Now that we are finally seeing changes at the top of corporations, hope can increase that companies will finally begin to start hiring again. Liberum contends that the slow level of executive turnover over the previous number of years related to the reluctance corporate boards and top executives had to change top leadership during tough economic times except in situations where the firm in question performed so poorly that a top executive change was necessary or if a major strategic change change in strategy was needed. As we moved into 2011, we finally saw the level of unemployment bottom out.

Liberum expects that if the economy manages to recover, even ever so slightly, the level of executive turnover will continue to rise. Both the pent up demand for new top executives and the possibilities for new job opportunities will account for growing executive turnover. Also boards are expected to be more willing to make changes as the economy continues to move in a positive direction especially if the debt ceiling problem is resolved, even temporarily.

Below are three simple graphics outlining the quarterly management changes as registered through Liberum’s Management Change Database for 2008 through 2011 (second quarter) for CEO, CFO and overall C-level turnover. The first two quarters of 2011 dramatically illustrate the reversal in trends we have seen for a number of years. Executive turnover is again in the ascendancy. We expect this trend to continue unless the economy encounters some kind of major shock, lack of agreement on the debt ceiling, for example, a major sovereign bankruptcy (Greece) or something totally unforeseen.

Quarterly Executive Turnover Continues to Decline While Overall Unemployment Remains High

Executive turnover has continued to decline throughout the economic and financial crisis and even as the recession ended according to the official proclamation by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Liberum Research’s latest quarterly turnover numbers for CEOs, CFOs, Board of Directors and C-level executives (defined to include CEOs, board of directors, CFOs, COOs, down to VP level) continued to show a drop in turnover for all key categories for the third quarter of 2010. The declining trend in executive turnover has continued since the first quarter of 2008 for all key executive turnover categories (see the CEO, CFO and C-level graphs below for quarterly turnover comparisons). While the first three quarters of 2010 continued to show significant declines in executive turnover, particularly when compared with the first, second and third quarters of 2009, we are beginning to see the overall executive turnover declines slowing when the quarterly figures are compared with each previous quarter of 2010.

• Third quarter 2010 CEO changes dropped 27%, CFO changes dropped 8% and overall C-level changes for the third quarter dropped 32% respectively when compared with the third quarter totals for 2009.

• The drop in changes for the third quarter of 2010 was much smaller when compared with the second quarter totals for 2010 - the drop was 21% for CEOs, 7% for CFOs and 6% for overall C-level changes.

While monthly executive turnover numbers have been smaller since early 2008, the investment opportunities they represent are still quite significant. Below Liberum put together three graphs representing the total executive related changes (CEOs, CFOs and C-level changes) by quarter for 2005 through the third quarter of 2010.

Liberum Research - Third Quarter Executive Change Comparisons Show Declines

The overall unemployment figures continue to diverge with executive turnover figures compiled by Liberum. Liberum has just completed analyzing third quarter figures for executive turnover. The key totals showed a continuing decline in executive turnover for CEOs, CFOs and overall C-level management as compared with the same time frames in 2008 and 2007 (view graphs below).

• CEO turnover declined 23%, CFO turnover declined 36% and overall C-level turnover (from board of directors on down to corporate vice presidents) registered a 24% decline for the third quater of 2009 as compared with the third quarter in 2008. The decline percentages were even larger when compared with the 2007 third quarter.

Investors need to keep a close eye on specific executive changes as well as the actual trends.

Recommended Reading - CEOs: Same Old Faces in the C-Suite, BusinessWeek

Jena McGregor wrote a piece for BusinessWeek that examined the surprising slow level of CEO turnover throughout the current recession. While overall unemployment during the same time frame has reached decade highs most top executives with obvious exceptions have managed to stay put. McGregor summed up the situation as follows:

When Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt campaigned for reelection during wartime, they told voters it was a bad idea to switch leaders midstream. Today, CEOs seem to be convincing their boards of the same thing.

The reporter turned to Liberum for some of her statistics. As reported in the piece, Liberum anticipates an increase in top level turnover as we move into the Fall. Stay tuned.

CEO & CFO Turnover Comparisons for 2005, 2006 & 2007

Liberum Research has found that corporate management turnover in 2007 was slightly below the record levels registered for 2006 but remained very high and was far above the numbers recorded in 2005. 2007 CEO, CFO and C-level turnover totals registered an overall decline of 5%, 2% and 2% respectively from that of 2006. The actual CEO and CFO changes for 2007 overall, however, were far more "significant" and in many cases were far more high-profile for the companies involved than were those registered in 2006.

2007 turnover data began to trend upwards after the first quarter of 2007 concluded. The first quarter of 2007 recorded dramatic declines from the same quarter in 2006. CEO turnover declined 17%, CFO turnover declined 22% and overall C-level management declined 15% in the first quarter of 2007 as compared with the same categories in 2006. The last three quarters of 2007, however, trended upward and are expected to continue at a high level into 2008. Each of the last three quarters showed a similar pattern in overall management changes with the record level of turnover recorded during 2006. Turnover totals for the last three quarters of 2007 were nearly the same as those in 2006 (see the graphs below).

Red Bar 2005
Blue Bar 2006
Green Bar 2007

Red Bar 2005
Blue Bar 2006
Green Bar 2007

Red Bar 2005
Blue Bar 2006
Green Bar 2007

Liberum expects the overall level of management change to continue to remain high as we move through the winter. Liberum's research anticipates the credit crisis to continue to have an impact on CEO and CFO turnover for the next few months and potentially beyond.