Declining Executive Turnover May Have Bottomed - Good News for the Economy?

Executive turnover has continued to decline throughout the great economic recession. Liberum’s latest quarterly turnover numbers for CEOs, CFOs, Board of Directors and C-level executives (defined to include CEOs, board of directors, CFOs, COOs, down to VP level) continued to show a drop in turnover for all key categories for the first quarter of 2010. This declining trend in executive turnover has continued since the first quarter of 2008 for all key executive turnover categories (see the CEO, CFO and C-level graphs below for quarterly turnover comparisons). For the first time since early 2008, Liberum expects the declining trend in executive turnover to have bottomed. We expect to see turnover numbers to begin to increase as we move into the second quarter of 2010.

While the first quarter of 2010 continued to show significant declines in executive turnover when compared with the first quarter of 2009, we have finally seen the overall executive turnover declines slowing when the figures are compared with the last quarter of 2009. If this trend continues, increased executive change at the top of companies may actually mean the economy is in for real expansion and growth.

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF QUARTERLY EXECUTIVE TURNOVER 2005 - 2010

Management Turnover Data for 2007 and 2006

Corporate management turnover in 2007 was slightly below the record levels registered for 2006 but remained very high. 2007 CEO, CFO and C-level turnover totals registered an overall decline of 5%, 2% and 2% respectively from that of 2006. The actual CEO and CFO changes for 2007 overall, however, were far more "significant" and in many cases were far more high-profile for the companies involved than were those registered in 2006.

2007 turnover data began to trend upwards after the first quarter of 2007 concluded. The first quarter of 2007 recorded dramatic declines from the same quarter in 2006. CEO turnover declined 17%, CFO turnover declined 22% and overall C-level management declined 15% in the first quarter of 2007 as compared with the same categories in 2006. The last three quarters of 2007, however, trended upward and are expected to continue at a high level into 2008. Each of the last three quarters showed a similar pattern in overall management changes with the record level of turnover recorded during 2006. Turnover totals for the last three quarters of 2007 were nearly the same as those in 2006 (see the data below).

2005, 2006 & 2007 QUARTER BY QUARTER
C-LEVEL CHANGE COMPARISONS
ALL C-LEVEL CHANGES
(Directors, CEOs, CFOs down to VP Level)

2005
1st Quarter - 3,135
2nd Quarter - 3,354
3rd Quarter - 3,787
4th Quarter - 6,396
TOTAL - 16,672

2006
1st Quarter - 7,539
2nd Quarter - 8,316
3rd Quarter - 6,214
4th Quarter - 5,989
TOTAL - 28, 058
(a 68% increase over 2005)

2007
1st Quarter - 6,430
2nd Quarter - 8123
3rd Quarter - 6321
4th Quarter - 6483
TOTAL - 27,357
(2% decline from 2006)

CEO CHANGES

2005
1st Quarter - 518
2nd Quarter - 500
3rd Quarter - 400
4th Quarter - 481
TOTAL - 1,899

2006
1st Quarter - 755
2nd Quarter - 727
3rd Quarter - 650
4th Quarter - 611
TOTAL - 2,743
(30% increase over 2005)

2007
1st Quarter - 626
2nd Quarter - 686
3rd Quarter - 641
4th Quarter - 664
TOTAL - 2,617
(5% decline from 2006)

CFO CHANGES

2005
1st Quarter - 457
2nd Quarter - 426
3rd Quarter - 408
4th Quarter - 426
TOTAL - 1,717

2006
1st Quarter - 630
2nd Quarter - 654
3rd Quarter - 551
4th Quarter - 466
TOTAL - 2,301
(23% increase over 2005)

2007
1st Quarter - 489
2nd Quarter - 646
3rd Quarter - 620
4th Quarter - 574
TOTAL - 2,329
(1% increase over 2006)

If you are intersted in more detailed data contact me by email.

Recommended Reading - Why the CFO’s first 100 days at work matter

Livemint.com a Wall Street Journal site summarized a recent survey and study conducted by McKinsey regarding the role new CFOs played during their first 100 days in office. The findings were worth examining. Financial Week's Matthew Quinn summarized the report as follows:

Newly appointed CFOs may not be spending enough time on crucial issues such as understanding the drivers of their business, working on corporate strategy and building their finance team in their first one hundred days...

Check it out.